Hacker NewsArticle URL: https://ai-2040.com/
Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48848425
Points: 361
# Comments: 443
Hacker News 讨论
361 points · 446 comments · 查看原帖
- taurath
This is religious fervor folks, as AI 2027 was. I grew up in evangelical christianity, and to them the end of the world is just around the corner, the same way it has been since I was a small child and likely will be when we are all gone. This isn't science. This isn't hypothesis experiment record results. This is very expensive astrology, shiny rock collecting, ritualistic meaning-making and self-justification. Yall, with your incredible wealth and resources you could do real good in this world and make society better, healthier, better educated, and the whole world more equal, just, and reduce the desperation and suffering. Reject the false and self-serving narratives that empathy doesn't matter, that altruism isn't "effective". You can change a person's whole life in a moment.
- jsnider3
The time for an AI pause has passed. Asking people not to race to the finish line is reasonable when the finish line is very far away and people don't know where it is, but not when it's the obvious next step on their current path.
- aarondong
I would not like to be dismissive, but to me this article feels like an exercise in creative writing rather than a report to be taken seriously. The entire experience feels like a choose your own adventure game, seems like their stylistic intent. I am not sure if alternative reality fiction is the best way to approach real and serious AI risks. I am also not sure, with the amount of emdashes and the style of prose, that the entire article was not AI generated. AI is going to be a mature scientific field. There are going to be efficiency improvements in training and inference. New paradigms are going to emerge with better multimodality, real time streaming and real time interfaces. Models are going to converge on the limits of our data available for pre and post training, improvements will be incremental and spiky in domains. I am not sure who the AI 2040 article is for. I suspect it is i
- KaiserPro
The biggest issue with 2027 was that it didn't understand the economy. For AI2027 to be real, the money has to come from somewhere to carry on building the economy. If >10% of the workers suddenly become unemployed, and the rest taking paycuts, then money supply dries up. (unless central banks do something, but then that can be highly inflationary) Without massive amounts of investment, AI development stops dead. In this post, they hand wave about the USA being able to acutally 1) build concensus locally for regulation and 2) the rest of the world actually follows suit. It fails to understand that actually the progress of AI is not actually the gift of the USA. It requires a constant supply of things from china. Also its assuming that having 74 billion agents doesn't cause economic distortion. Like what value are these agents generating that justifies them being run? I really wish people
- joshstrange
I'm sure some people will have issue with my phrasing but, honest question: Are there examples of where we have collective decided not to pursue knowledge? Successfully? I guess nuclear weapons might be the best example though research doesn't seem have to actually "stopped" as much as gone underground and we still have country trying to climb that ladder. But I don't know how relevant that is to LLMs/AI. It almost feels like pandora's box is open and our only option is continue to improve them. There is clearly value in what they do and while I can absolutely see the dangers, for example: authoritative governments and surveillance, I'm not convinced to throw the baby out with the bathwater. All of technology back to the printing press (and probably before that) could also be said to make it easier for governments to oppress their citizens. Making laws (and enforcing them!) to prevent go
- theplumber
Just enforce DMCA and all the Ai super powers will suddenly become more dumb for the next 10 years. Of course that’s for the kids pirating a movie not for trillion dollar companies
- a_vanderbilt
I found the AI 2027 paper to be overly optimistic, but not wholly fantastical. This paper feels wildly speculative, and relies on premises I am not confident even pass surface reasoning. Even under optimistic conditions, we are not going to see robots "capable of 95% of all cognitive and physical tasks" by 2035. Nor do I think a 74% unemployment rate is even remotely possible. Economic collapse would implode AI development long before those figures were plausible.
- kennywinker
It seems to me we’re already at the top of the S curve, not at the toe of an exponential curve. At least with LLMs. Better training data will make small improvements, better architecture will make it less compute intensive, and all these “hyper-scale” data centers will make it cheap and ubiquitous. But none of that is it getting exponentially more intelligent.